The pressure on new Premier League bosses

At the beginning of this season, eight managers in the Barclay's Premier League were embarking on their first full campaign in new roles.

New Manchester City boss Manuel Pellegrini
Creative Commons (Wikipedia)

Some had managed in the division before: Jose Mourinho has twice won the Premier League title and is returning to familiar ground to try and repeat the feat; Mark Hughes has a reputation to rebuild at Stoke; Ian Holloway and Roberto Martinez have both suffered relegation in recent years; and David Moyes has the hardest act to follow, having left Everton to fill Sir Alex Ferguson’s shoes at Old Trafford.

Of the remaining three, Manuel Pellegrini has the most managerial experience, but was newest to the English game, while fellow Argentine Mauricio Pochettino had half a season at Southampton under his belt, and Italian Paolo Di Canio performed a late rescue mission at Sunderland last season.

Each of these managers faced distinct circumstances and challenges – some to win silverware, others just to stay in the division.

But what united each of them is that they faced incredible pressure to meet these expectations from the first whistle of the season. Such was the pressure, two were out of work within weeks of the first whistle of the season.

Here today, gone tomorrow

That’s because expectations on football managers in the Premier League have now reached unprecedented levels of intensity.

This is reflected in the high turnover rates of Premier League bosses. Across each of the last five years, at least 20% of managers that started the season have left their club before its conclusion. In 2008/09 a staggering nine managerial changes took place during the season.

This trend means that aside from Arsene Wenger – who having led Arsenal for nearly 17 years is very much the last remaining exception in this regard – Newcastle’s Alan Pardew is the longest serving boss in the Premier League, despite having only been in charge for just over two and a half years.

Sam Allardyce, Martin Jol and Malky Mackay have also each been in their jobs for just over two years, while, aside from the eight managers referred to above, the remainder have chalked up a little over 12 months each in post.

Current Premier League manager tenures

The average tenure of the current line up of Premier League managers – again leaving out Arsene Wenger – is now roughly 14 months.

This trend is not unique to the Premier League, as this comparison shows. But what are the key factors driving the high turnover of bosses in the Premier League?

First, the costs of competing at the top level of English football, and the financial rewards associated with success, have never been greater. The transfer fees, wages and television revenue associated with the Premier League continue to rise, making running a football club in the top flight of English football a high stakes business.

Although prize money is awarded for each additional Premier League place gained (c. £1m per place), the real financial incentive lies in qualifying for the Champions League.

Each of the 32 teams that qualify for the Champions’ League group stages is guaranteed to earn over €8m in prize monies alone, even if it loses every single game (each win is worth an additional €1m).

Once television revenue and round-by-round prize money is included, clubs stand to make anywhere between €25m and €60m from participating in the Champions League.

So for clubs like Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool who have consistently invested in their playing squads, not competing in the Champions League is not just a challenge to their status as “top clubs”, but also tantamount to a financial disaster

But when there are only four slots available, every season at least one major competitor will be disappointed, and more often than not, the manager will pay the price.

Second, the expectations of owners and fans tend to be coloured by historical successes. England is home to a large number of clubs who have proud traditions of success at home and in continental competitions, often supported by significant fanbases.

It is easy for the owners and fans of these clubs to be captured by such traditions and to disregard more recent and relevant history as a guide to what a realistic measure of success should be for their team.

And it’s entirely understandably that long suffering fans of a club like Newcastle United continue to yearn for a return to the swashbuckling Kevin Keegan teams of the mid-90s, or the never-say-die attitude of Sir Bobby Robson’s Champions’ League campaigns in the early 00’s.

But since Sir Bobby left Newcastle at the beginning of 2004/05, only twice have the club finished higher than 12th in the Premier League, during which time they have hired and fired eight managers, and also experienced relegation to the Championship.

It is now simply not reasonable to continue to judge the current guardians of the club against the standards of these two relatively short periods of success now a decade or more in the past.

The current board’s reluctance to dispense with Alan Pardew after a disappointing 2012/13 season reflects a realisation that patience is required and expectations should be measured.

But this is far from being the case at every ground in the Premier League where managers continue to be measured against their distant predecessors, before inevitably coming up short.

Third, many managers end up being victims of their own success. Just as some fans and owners have difficulty forgetting the past, many struggle to remember recent progress that may have been made by their club.

This particularly applies to those clubs who gain promotion to the Premier League. You can count on one hand the number of days between a manager collecting the Play Off Trophy at Wembley, and them topping the bookies latest odds in the Premier League Sack Race.

Most promoted clubs can’t possibly invest the same amounts in their squad as established Premier League rivals. Yet, if come the end of January Hull City, Crystal Palace or Cardiff City are being cut adrift at the bottom of the league, the pressure will be on the owner to make a change (or a further change, in Crystal Palace’s case) in order to maintain their Premier League status.

There is something peculiar in the notion that it is a managers’ success that can often lead to their downfall – it shows how quickly the game moves on and expectations are re-assessed.

After all, had Brian McDermott or Nigel Adkins failed to gain promotion to the Premier League in 2011/12, they may still be in their jobs now.

Conclusions

Football management is a highly pressured and precarious profession. With manager turnover as it is currently, it’s entirely possible to be ‘Manager of the Month’ in January, but back in the job centre by the end of February.

Yet it is far from clear that sacking a manager significantly benefits the club in question. Every situation is different, but for many, such as Reading in 2012/13, it yields no significant improvement in performances.

For others, such as Southampton, it provides a short term boost which then fades (it’s interesting to note that Nigel Adkins and Mauricio Pochettino’s records last season are nigh on identical, despite the Argentine beginning his reign so impressively).

On the other hand, Chelsea has gone through seven managers since 2004 and can boast Premier League Championships and a Champions League title for their efforts.

Ultimately a new managerial appointment in itself is unlikely to be sufficient to drastically change the long term performance levels of a club. Increasingly managers are just one part of a complex infrastructure that includes Directors of Football, Directors of Recruitment, Sports Scientists and Analysts.

So, while managers remain the main public face of a club, carrying responsibility for its wellbeing, their ability to do a good job is contingent on many others who, for now, are unlikely to be held accountable in the same way.

For the foreseeable future then, the manager will remain the most vulnerable position at a club when their fortunes start to fall.

And as for the remainder of this season, one would likely get very long odds indeed on there being no further managerial changes before it has concluded.

-Football Fever